From Domestic Needs to Global Trade: The Economics of Wheat in Pakistan an Article by Dr Hussain Qadri

An insightful article by Prof. Dr. Hussain Mohi-ud-Din Qadri delves into Pakistan’s wheat economy—highlighting production challenges, trade gaps, and the strategic reforms needed for food security and global competitiveness. Drawn from his authoritative book “Wheat Production in Pakistan,” the article emphasizes self-reliance, modern farming, and policy transformation.

📍 Published in The Business newspaper on May 23, 2025

Prof. Dr. Hussain Mohi-ud-Din Qadri, a renowned economist, researcher, and author, presents a comprehensive analysis of wheat trade and economics in his book “Wheat Production in Pakistan.” This article draws upon key insights from his work to explore Pakistan’s wheat trade and its significance in the global economy.

Wheat is one of the world's staple foods, with its global trade volume valued in billions of dollars. Countries like Russia, the United States, Canada, France, and other European nations play a significant role in wheat production and exports. These nations strengthen their agricultural sectors through advanced technology, research, and supportive government policies to meet domestic needs and remain competitive globally.

In Pakistan, wheat production is largely focused on meeting domestic consumption. According to official and private sources for the fiscal year 2024–25, the total wheat production in Pakistan stood at approximately 26.8 million metric tons, whereas annual consumption hovers around 29 to 30 million metric tons. This includes public consumption, industrial needs, and reserves. To bridge this gap, the government signed agreements to import nearly 3 million metric tons of wheat, primarily from Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

Regarding exports, Pakistan exported limited quantities of wheat products (such as flour, refined flour, and bran) during 2024–25, with an estimated export value of around USD 35 million. This was mainly due to domestic shortages and price instability, prompting the government to impose export restrictions. Experts believe that increasing per-acre yield can help Pakistan not only fulfill domestic demand but also earn valuable foreign exchange through exports.

Globally, wheat prices are influenced by several factors, including climate change, wars, political tensions, and economic conditions. For instance, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has severely disrupted the global wheat supply chain, as both countries are among the largest wheat exporters. This situation has made wheat procurement more costly and challenging for countries like Pakistan, exerting negative pressure on the national economy.

To attain self-reliance in wheat trade, Pakistan must enhance production and strengthen its trade strategies. The government must support farmers with quality seeds, modern farming techniques, and adequate subsidies to boost production. Additionally, investment in research and advanced technologies is essential to align wheat production with international standards.

Another critical aspect is Pakistan’s trade policy, which should effectively regulate wheat imports and exports. Although Pakistan is not among the leading wheat exporters, it must develop integrated and predictable trade policies to establish a better position in the global market. Addressing hoarding issues and ensuring transparency in the market is also crucial so that farmers receive fair compensation and price stability is maintained.

To enhance Pakistan’s position in the global wheat market, the country must pursue trade agreements and agricultural cooperation with other nations. Regional cooperation, especially with South and Central Asian countries where food demand is rising, can significantly boost wheat exports. Moreover, technical and financial assistance from global organizations can help improve Pakistan’s agricultural yield and quality.

However, increasing production alone is not enough. Reforms in trade systems, market transparency, and aligning strategies with global market demands are vital. Pakistan must aim to ensure food security while also targeting competitive exports to improve the livelihoods of millions of farmers and strengthen the national economy.

In conclusion, advancing Pakistan’s agricultural sector—particularly wheat production and trade—requires a well-coordinated and holistic strategy at both governmental and private levels. Only then can the country unlock new avenues of growth and prosperity in the global agri-trade landscape.